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The consumer durable goods industrial production index reached 91.7 in January 2012, which is the third highest level since June 2008. Consumer durable goods industrial production for January 2012 was 9.8 percent higher than it was in January 2011. Since 1965, the index has grown just 3.2 percent on average per month. On an annual basis, the growth rate is 7.7 percent, which is significantly greater than the long-term average of 2.9 percent. Also, the consumer durable goods industrial production annual growth rate has increased each of the last five months.
A good leading indicator for consumer durable goods industrial production is consumer durable goods spending. If we look at the levels of spending and production in the United States since 1972, we can see that there is a lot of room for growth if spending and production revert to their historical relationship with each other. While there is plenty of room for growth in industrial production, the annual rate of spending growth has been slowing. However, spending is slowing from a historically high level, so even though the leading indicator is pointing toward some slowing in industrial production, it looks like industrial production should remain strong in the near term.
Specific sectors that are seeing exceptionally strong industrial production growth rates are aerospace, engines, turbines, and power equipment, medical equipment, and motor vehicles and parts.
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